INFLUÊNCIA DAS VARIÁVEIS CLIMÁTICAS NA IPREVALÊNCIA E DISPERSÃO DA DENGUE NO BRASIL: UMA ANÁLISE TEMPORAL E ESPACIAL

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the influence of climatic variables on the prevalence of dengue cases in Brazil. Epidemiological and sociodemographic data from the capital cities between 2013 and 2022 were collected through the DATASUS platform. Climatic data were obtained from INMET. The study evaluated the 27 capital cities and identified 1,792,841 dengue cases, with 80% of the cases concentrated in Goiânia, Belo Horizonte, Brasília, São Paulo, Fortaleza, Campo Grande, Rio de Janeiro, and Natal. Prevalence was observed in the years 2016, 2019, and 2022, as well as in the months from February to June, demonstrating a seasonal pattern of cases. Regarding the correlations between the cases and climatic variables, a positive correlation was observed between precipitation and the cities of Natal (r=0.86; p<0.001) and São Luís (r=0.82; p<0.001). There was a negative correlation between average wind speed and the cities of Goiânia (r=-0.88; p<0.001), Belo Horizonte (r=-0.87; p<0.001), Brasília (r=-0.83; p=0.01), Fortaleza (r=-0.64; p=0.03), Campo Grande (r=-0.78; p<0.001), and São Luís (r=-0.94; p<0.0001). There was a prevalence of cases among individuals aged 20 to 59 years, with completed high school education, and among women. These results can contribute to the development of more effective public policies for the management of dengue cases in Brazil.

KEYWORDS: Arboviruses; Climate; Rain; Wind